Welcome to Super Tuesday! Is this the end? Is this a new beginning? Is this a new beginning to the end? We will find out in due time. I will, obviously, offer my predictions on today’s races. But before I get down to the predictions, let’s discuss some questions about the campaign, and wonder whether today will resolve any of them? Unfortunately, the discussion will contain some spoilers on the predictions, but that is inevitable.
First, why is Newt Gingrich still in the race and what makes him think Super Tuesday will change anything? Newt started out his campaign so poorly it was nearly the end of his campaign. If not for his billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, Newt Gingrich would have been out after finishing last in Iowa and New Hampshire. He rebounded to upset Mitt Romney in South Carolina, and followed that up with second place finishes in Florida and Nevada.
Since then, however, he has placed as follows:
Missouri- Not on ballot
Minnesota- Last
Colorado- 3rd (Beat only Ron Paul)
Maine-Last
Arizona-Last
Michigan-Last
Washington-Last
On Super Tuesday, he is not on the ballot in Virginia, but is expected to win his home state of Georgia.
In the remaining eight Super Tuesday states, he is expected to finish according to the pattern he has shown the previous seven states, either dead last, or 3rd having topped only Ron Paul. Can he pull a shocker or two somewhere? Probably not. Would it matter if he did? Probably not. So what the heck is he still doing in the race?
Ron Paul has his own reasons for staying in, which we will discuss when we get to him, but there is no valid reason whatsoever for Newt Gingrich to still stay in this race. Worse, it can be reasonably argued that with Newt Gingrich out, Rick Santorum would have won Michigan. I think it is fair to assume that of those who voted for Newt Gingrich, more would have voted for Rick Santorum instead of Mitt Romney. With the split in Michigan being only 3%, that division of the Newt Gingrich vote would have pushed Rick Santorum to victory.
The very same thing could happen today in Ohio. The race is neck and neck (and although this may be a spoiler to the predictions I will make at the end) but Mitt Romney will win Ohio today. He will win very narrowly. And the Newt Gingrich vote will again be enough to tip Ohio to Rick Santorum.
Think of how different this race would be if Rick Santorum had won Michigan? Losing Ohio will likely not be the end for Rick Santorum today, but winning it after winning Michigan would have Mitt Romney on the ropes instead of locked in as the likely nominee. The same will likely happen today in Tennessee according to the recent polls: a close Mitt Romney victory over Rick Santorum with the votes that went for Newt Gingrich being enough to make up the difference.
So again the question, what possible reason does Newt Gingrich have for remaining in this race? And when he wakes tomorrow having won ONLY his home state of Georgia today (which was all he ever had a shot to win anyway) will he drop out? If so, why did he not drop out three weeks ago? Newt Gingrich will end this string of eighteen early primaries with one victory (his home state of Georgia), two states where he was not on the ballot (Missouri and Virginia) and fifteen finishes in either last or next to last. Yet he will have had more impact than anyone who was a part of the process as he will have turned three states Rick Santorum desperately needed to win into Mitt Romney victories. Who knows, maybe Mitt Romney promised him a cabinet position or something? He should at least buy him something nice when this is all over.
Next question, obviously, is why is Ron Paul still in the race? He at least has been doing better than Newt Gingrich. He has not won any states (as Gingrich did with South Carolina and will in Georgia today) but he has been second in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Washington. Today will not be a turnaround for Ron Paul, as he will join Gingrich in the 3rd/or last role in every state except Virginia, where only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are on the ballot.
One might think that Virginia would at least be a shot for Ron Paul to garner some delegates, as it is a proportional state and only the two candidates are on the ballot. Wrong. The way the delegates are apportioned in Virginia changes if one candidate exceeds 50%, in other words wins a landslide. With only two candidates on the ballot, the winner will almost certainly exceed 50% (unless it is nearly tied and some write-ins steal away enough votes). So despite finishing second, Ron Paul may get nothing from Virginia.
So why is he still here? Ron Paul is a fringe player who is sticking around just to amass enough delegates so he at least gets a speaking slot at the convention where he can have a forum for his opinions. He has managed to nibble away a few delegates here and there, and assuming he stays in long after this process is decided, he will likely amass more. After all, once the nomination is secured, the nominee stops campaigning in the primaries. With his grassroots teams, and his low budget campaign style, he can continue to campaign and pick up 10-15% of the vote in each state. Almost all the states from here out are proportional.
Ron Paul will get his chance to speak at the convention. It will be irrelevant, as the Republicans will not let Ron Paul speak in prime time during the convention. So although he will get his say, and the media will comment on it, he will not achieve anything of significance. But for Ron Paul, being heard and having the chance to explain why you are right is all that has ever mattered. I admire his drive, and his principles. He is not a realist, and he never had a serious chance to even be considered for President, but he will stay in and for that he will have his say.
As for Rick Santorum, how different things might have been if he had gotten credit for winning Iowa when it happened instead of weeks later. How different things might have been if Ron Paul had not sabotaged him in the debate right before Michigan and if Newt Gingrich had dropped out and let Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum go head to head? How different things might have been if Rick Santorum had money at the start, and if he could have been on the ballot in Virginia? Or if he had the money to counter Mitt Romney’s ad blitzes in the early states to keep his momentum going? But alas, none of that happened.
I would love to see Rick Santorum take Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, with strong finishes elsewhere. But I think the handwriting is on the wall.
I will end with my predictions for tonight. Newt Gingrich wins Georgia. Rick Santorum wins Oklahoma. Mitt Romney wins everything else. Mitt Romney wins Ohio, which the polls currently say favors Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney also wins Tennessee, where the polls also favor Rick Santorum, but Rick Santorum does have a chance here. Super Tuesday will be a huge night for Mitt Romney. Rick Santorum finishes second everywhere (except Virginia where he is not on the ballot). When it is done, Newt Gingrich drops out, maybe Rick Santorum lurks a while but he will effectively be dead man walking if he cannot pull some big upsets down the road. Or he may just drop out also. I hope I am wrong and that the race goes on.
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