It is time for the Super Tuesday postmortem. Despite winning three states, which was two more than I predicted, Super Tuesday was an even worse day for Rick Santorum than even I had envisioned. Mitt Romney took more delegates than expected, Rick Santorum noticeably less.
This has left the electoral math in a precarious predicament for Rick Santorum. He needs to win 61% of the remaining delegates to overtake Mitt Romney. Assuming Mitt Romney holds on to his commanding leads in NY and NJ, or even if they fall all the way to even splits, Rick Santorum would be forced to win 68% of the remaining delegates.
This is not beyond the realm of mathematical possibility, but it absolutely cannot happen if Newt Gingrich remains in the race. Kansas votes this weekend. Mitt Romney has struggled in the Midwest and Newt Gingrich is forgoing Kansas to focus on Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. So if Rick Santorum can win Kansas, it will be a boost despite not significantly altering the delegate race.
Alabama and Mississippi are ‘must wins’ for Newt Gingrich or there will be calls to drop out on Wednesday morning. I do not see any way Mitt Romney wins either state, so the need is for Rick Santorum to upset Newt Gingrich in one or both of those state, thereby narrowing the delegate race very slightly AND forcing Newt Gingrich from the race.
Many of the delegates Gingrich and the other candidates have accumulated are of the ‘uncommitted’ variety. This means that if your candidate is out, you are free to support anyone else at the convention. Most simply choose to support the eventual nominee, so it is not normally a factor, but if Newt Gingrich bows out, it throws another 100 or so delegates back into the mix. Whether they would eventually support Rick Santorum or not, he can argue that these ‘uncommitted’ delegates help his math and make it a greater possibility Mitt Romney can be overtaken.
If however, Newt Gingrich wins Alabama and Mississippi, he will be in it for the long haul and will be able to make a much stronger argument that it is Rick Santorum who should bow out. It will not matter how the argument goes. If there are still three candidates (yes, I do not even count Ron Paul as a candidate at this point) come Wednesday morning, the nomination belongs to Mitt Romney or to no one. There is no other way the math works out. So while the next 5 days will not likely guarantee and end to the primary campaign, it very well may guarantee a winner.
There is more to the story however. So far, the candidates have won the following states:
Gingrich: South Carolina, Georgia
Santorum: Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Romney: New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont, and Virginia
No one, in any of the recent polls, picks Romney to win anything this week: Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi
Why are the results to date an issue for Mitt Romney? The answer is simple. Mitt Romney is winning Democratic states. Other than Arizona and Alaska (which went for John McCain/Sarah Palin and were the home states of the two candidates) every state Mitt Romney has won so far was a state that went for Barack Obama in 2008 and likely will again in 2012. Yes, every one. Both of Newt Gingrich’s wins were in Red states. Four of Rick Santorum’s seven wins were in Red states. And all three primaries this week ahead is are in Red states and will almost certainly go for Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.
Can Mitt Romney actually beat Barack Obama in any of the Blue states he has won so far? Probably not, except maybe if he wins Massachusetts. A Romney advisor opined this week that the above-mentioned NY/NJ primaries would act as a significant firewall to a Rick Santorum comeback as Mitt Romney will likely win those states by large margins. Again, these are states that are already in the win column for Barack Obama in November.
So it appears Mitt Romney is capable of beating true conservatives in Blue states, but not in Red states. I challenge someone from the Mitt Romney campaign to tell me one state that John McCain lost that Mitt Romney will flip to the Republican side of the ledger? He needs about five to actually win, as Barack Obama routed John McCain, but I would settle for one.
Even worse for Mitt Romney are the exit poll results from Ohio and Michigan, two states which went Democratic in 2008 and are hardly conservative bastions. Mitt Romney won Michigan on the strength of Wayne County (Detroit) and the suburbs and won Ohio on the strength of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), both Democratic strongholds in November. Worse, the demographics in both states are shocking.
Incomes under $50K per year: Santorum
Incomes between $50K and $100K per year: Santorum
Incomes between $100K and $150Kper year: Santorum
Incomes between $150K and $200K per year: Santorum
Incomes over $200K per year: Romney
So basically Mitt Romney won Republicans very likely to vote Democrat in the fall, and wealthy people. Yes, the statistics are accurate. The only income demographic Mitt Romney won in Michigan OR Ohio was people earning over $200K per year. Take those out; Rick Santorum wins both states handily. Why is this relevant? It is relevant because in 2008, voters with incomes above $200K per year voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, not John McCain!
So this dramatically changes Mitt Romney’s argument about electability. His contention is that only he, and not Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, can beat Barack Obama in November. What has he done to prove that? He has won Blue states that will undoubtedly vote for Barack Obama in November. He has won on the strength of voters with $200K plus incomes, who will undoubtedly vote for Barack Obama in November. And he has lost every southern state and Red state which are vital to a Republican winning a presidential race (with the previously mentioned exceptions of Arizona and Alaska).
So on what does he base his claim of electability? At this point, based on the primaries so far, both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have proven an ability to win Republicans. They have both proven an ability to win in the South. Rick Santorum has proven his appeal with blue-collar and lower income voters. Mitt Romney has proven he would be a fine Democratic nominee. This is the argument Rick Santorum needs to make if he can eventually force Newt Gingrich out: Mitt Romney is the Barack Obama of the Right, but I am the conservative Republican alternative. Now if only we get to have that debate before it is too late.
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