Where is Ron Paul?

Where is Ron Paul? More importantly, why amidst the clamor for Newt Gingrich to leave the race are there not similar calls for Ron Paul to bow out gracefully?

Ron Paul’s last campaign appearance was March 14^th, the morning after the Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii primaries. With contests like Maryland and Washington DC looming in the next two weeks, states that are not winnable for Ron Paul but where he could reasonably hope for second place, why is he not out campaigning?

Perhaps Ron Paul has accepted the inevitable of Mitt Romney as the nominee? Or has he accepted the reality that after winning no contests during the 2008 or 2012 campaigns he is no longer relevant?

Ron Paul has managed seven second place finishes this campaign, either in New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) or states bordering Canada (Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington). The lone exception is Virginia where he placed second by virtue of being one of only two candidates on the ballot.

Despite his inability to win states, or even to collect significant delegates from being runner-up, Ron Paul is having a significant impact on the head-to-head battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

During the final Republican debate prior to the critical Michigan primary, Ron Paul launched a full assault on Rick Santorum so calculated and effective it appeared scripted by the Mitt Romney campaign.

First, Ron Paul backed up his television ads by calling Rick Santorum a ‘fake’ to his face.

Paul then followed with an attack that made Rick Santorum defend his support of fellow Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, which Rick Santorum explained as ‘taking one for the team’. With Mitt Romney painting Rick Santorum as a Washington insider throughout the campaign, acknowledging yourself as part of the ‘team’ who will do what is best for your fellow Senators instead of what you believe in played right into Romney’s argument.

Finally Ron Paul managed to push Rick Santorum into a lengthy defense of the earmarks procured during Santorum’s time in the Senate. Rick Santorum’s efforts to explain his voting record again reinforced the Mitt Romney contention that Rick Santorum is a Washington insider, while also raising serious questions about whether Santorum is the true Conservative he claims to be.

Worse, Santorum’s defense was heavy on explanations of Senate procedure and made him sound more like a Newt Gingrich style policy wonk than the outsider he has fashioned himself to be.

This past weekend in Missouri, Ron Paul teamed with Mitt Romney to deny Rick Santorum delegates. By pooling votes in districts where Rick Santorum was leading, the combined Romney/Paul slate was able to win those districts and thus divide the delegates among themselves.

A good example would be Franklin County, which had 40 delegates to the state convention. It is a little confusing as these are not the same ‘delegates’ as those who will vote for the Republican nomination at the convention in Tampa. These are among the 2,123 delegates to the Missouri state convention next month to select the 49 delegates who will represent Missouri and help choose a nominee in Tampa.

Rick Santorum would have won Franklin County and the 40 available delegates in a winner take all contest.  But instead, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney combined their votes in a unified ticket and took first place. They then divided the 40 delegates according to the vote percentages they each brought to the unified ticket, in this case 24 delegates for Ron Paul and 16 delegates for Mitt Romney.

I am sure Ron Paul has a good reason for assisting Mitt Romney this way? And I am sure that despite his string of last place finishes, Ron Paul has a good reason for staying in the race?

Perhaps if he ever decides to start campaigning again we will find out the answers to these questions.

Alabama, Mississippi Roundup

1.     Arrogant. 2. Stubborn. 3. In Denial. These are three things you will hear repeatedly over the next week about Newt Gingrich if he indeed sticks to his pledge from last night that he will NOT drop out, that he will soldier on, and that he is taking this campaign all the way to the Republican convention in Tampa.

1.     Arrogant. 2. Aloof. 3. Out of Touch. These are three things you will hear repeatedly over the next week about Mitt Romney and why he is having such difficulty connecting with the voters outside of a few limited demographic groups.

The problem with any presidential candidate is the same, but it is one we as voters need to overlook. We need to get past a likeability perspective, stop wanting them to be an Average Joe, and focus on who will institute policies to best help us? Who will advance our cause, and make our lives better, without reducing our liberties?

The presidential candidates are not like us. Even Barack Obama, who came from more humble roots, is not like us. I have friends who are lawyers, executives, salespeople, tradespeople, financiers, and a host of other professions. But you know what? None of us went to Harvard, or Yale, or Stanford. None of us worry about which provides the best tax shelter: the Cayman Islands or Switzerland. We worry about paying the bills. We worry about paying for college. We worry about keeping our car inspected and insured. We worry that if gas goes up to $4.50 we will struggle to find the extra $100 per month to fill the tank. Mitt Romney does not worry. Nor does Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum lose sleep over it. And I am pretty sure, win or lose, Barack and Michelle Obama are going to get by just fine.

Is Newt Gingrich an arrogant ass? He absolutely is. Is Mitt Romney a lifelong member of the privileged class who thinks he is better than everyone else and therefore entitled to lead? In the opinion of many voters, that goes without saying. But the issue is this: none of us are ever going to be president. There needs to be a certain level of money and power and insider influence to even play the game at that level. And there needs to be the highest level of arrogance to believe that you are the right guy to lead the entire world. Anyone who decides to run for that office, and who has the money and connections to try, will always share that same personality. The trick is to make people think you are like them, without embarrassing yourself doing it.

The stakes at this game are highest for Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich can continue to be the arrogant, aloof, policy wonk that he is. People will like or dislike him, but he need not change. He is not trying to connect, he is not trying to be President, he is dreaming of being King and ruling unilaterally. That is why he has no chance at all. Rick Santorum actually did come from blue collar roots, went to Penn State, and coached Little League, so he has been more able to make connections with everyday Americans. Mitt Romney, however, cannot win against Barack Obama if he cannot connect with everyday people like you and me.

But to change who you are during a political campaign in an effort to endear you to the common man is risky. Remember John Kerry windsurfing? Or duck hunting? Or trying to order a Philly Cheesesteak with Swiss cheese? Remember Michael Dukakis riding a tank? Remember Barack Obama bowling? Remember Hilary Clinton having a beer in some Michigan dive bar? They looked ridiculous. They looked desperate. And try as they may, they did not convince one voter that they were common folk like we are. Get used to the arrogance, regardless of candidate. And when it gets down to just two men standing, get ready for some feeble attempts to humanize the candidates and make us think they are just like we are. This is how we play the game.

But enough about that, let’s get down to last night and what it meant.

First, let me say, ‘Curse you Newt Gingrich and curse you Alabama’. Despite the polling that had Mitt Romney in the lead everywhere, I predicted a split of the night. Mitt Romney would win Hawaii, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum would upset Mitt Romney and split the South. I even made a call on the percentages: ‘If the states go 33% to the winner, 31% to the runner-up, and 30% to the person in 3^rd…’ Well, Mitt Romney took Hawaii. And Rick Santorum won Mississippi, 33% to 31% to 30%. Alabama however, despite bordering Newt’s home state of Georgia, went big for Rick Santorum. As Meatloaf sang, ‘Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad’.

But what does it all mean?

First, there is no way now mathematically anyone but Mitt Romney gets to 1144 delegates before the convention. And this is regardless of whether Newt Gingrich drops out or not. There are too many Blue states where Mitt Romney will be strong, too many states where even the runner-up will still garner 40% of the delegates, too many places Rick Santorum will not be on every ballot. So despite the pleading from the Rick Santorum campaign that the Mitt Romney campaign math is incorrect, the math does not lie. But as the saying goes: There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

No, Rick Santorum cannot get to 1144 delegates without a parade of enormous upsets that would likely qualify as miracles and with Mitt Romney performing way below even the worst possible expectations. If Santorum sweeps every state from here on with 60% of the votes, even with Newt Gingrich out, he will still not get to 1144 delegates. But with some luck, a few upsets, and a continuing disillusion about Mitt Romney, he may get to 900 delegates and keep Mitt Romney in the low 1100’s, just below the nominating threshold. But even that will take a lot of luck, a lot of help, and a lot of money.

But that is the only chance there is for Rick Santorum: Keep Mitt Romney below 1144, have him not win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, and have it become an open/brokered convention. But would it really come to that anyway, even if the delegate math worked out perfectly for Rick Santorum? Who is to say that some of the uncommitted delegates would not side with Mitt Romney on the first ballot of the convention to give Mitt Romney the nomination if he were only 50 or so delegates short and the next choice was Rick Santorum? 

Would Ron Paul, with his accumulated delegates, look to play kingmaker? In exchange for a prime-time televised slot to speak at the convention, and a few of his more acceptable ideas being inserted into the party platform, Ron Paul would immediately jump at the chance to throw his delegates to Mitt Romney and put him over the top. As crazy as Ron Paul might be, he is closer on issues with Mitt Romney than Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich.

Rick Santorum cannot catch Mitt Romney on delegates. And he cannot likely beat him in a true brokered convention. His only hope is to make the delegate math a lot closer, and to make it clear to Republicans over the next four months that the circumstances for November have changed dramatically.

Right now, Republicans believe that Mitt Romney has a better chance than Rick Santorum of beating Barack Obama. I do not know that there would be any set of circumstances, with both men still standing, that people would rethink that position. However, if Rick Santorum can destroy Mitt Romney state by state and month by month, if he can make him absolutely unelectable, then the argument changes. It will change from who between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum has the better chance to beat Barack Obama, to a fight between a guy with no chance and a guy with a slim chance. Can Rick Santorum pull that off? Would he go so far as to destroy Mitt Romney and risk ensuring Barack Obama’s re-election if Mitt Romney secures the nomination anyway? Time will tell, but if Rick Santorum pulls any punches, if he refuses to take the nuclear option against Mitt Romney, he has no chance to win.

The party is lining up behind Mitt Romney. Today, Tom Ridge threw in his endorsement. Mitt Romney previously got John McCain. Mitt Romney has been endorsed by Republican governors in almost every state that has held primaries so far. So even if he does not get to 1144 delegates, it is very likely that the Republican Party will intercede and take the steps necessary to get Mitt Romney the delegates he needs to be the nominee. Deals will be cut. Promises will be made. Positions in a Mitt Romney administration will be offered. Will it be frustrating and damaging for Mitt Romney? It absolutely will. But at this point, tired of the fight and out of options, Mitt Romney will concede anything he has in to get the nomination.

Finally, I offer a word or two about Newt Gingrich. He had a great night last night. Previously, he had either won (Georgia & South Carolina) or finished 3^rd/4^th. But last night he actually managed two second place finishes. Yes, I am being sarcastic. They were hardcore Red-South states he knew he had to win and had promised as such. And they were neighboring states of his home state of Georgia. Second by a nose might as well have been dead last.

Newt Gingrich is finished in this race. He honestly has been since he first entered the race last spring, which is why I kept most of the focus of today’s piece on the future of Mitt Romney/Rick Santorum.  Will he drop out? That depends on Sheldon Adelson, Newt Gingrich’s billionaire backer. Newt Gingrich is finished as a fundraiser. No one with money to give will choose Newt Gingrich over Rick Santorum if they refuse to support Mitt Romney. So for Newt Gingrich, it is a one man race. If Sheldon Adelson keeps writing checks, Newt Gingrich stays in. Without him, Newt Gingrich will not have the money for staff, or travel, or advertising. He will drop out immediately.

Newt Gingrich staying in will hurt Rick Santorum. It may just ensure Mitt Romney the nomination. But for Newt Gingrich, it has been and always will be about Newt Gingrich. Maybe he wants to have the Ron Paul role I mentioned earlier: accumulate enough delegates to play kingmaker in Tampa? Maybe he seriously and foolishly believes that at a true brokered convention, with both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum damaged to the point of unelectable, the party will turn to him as savior? That thinking befits hit enormous ego, but not the reality.

If the Republican Party decided to do a complete shake-up at the convention, throw it open and throw out Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (which will never happen by the way), the party would choose someone like NJ Governor  Chris Christie to be the savior and nominee and not Newt Gingrich. So Newt Gingrich can stay or leave, no one really cares. He will be out within the month no matter what he chooses now, as he will be 3^rd/4^th in every state from here on. How long he stays, and how much his staying damages Rick Santorum, is the only real issue at the present.

So on to the Puerto Rico primary this weekend, where both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are campaigning personally. And then on to a huge Tuesday battle in Illinois, where either Rick Santorum will continue his upsets or Mitt Romney will continue his pattern of winning Blue states that Barack Obama will carry in November anyway.  I am just glad that the process continues, and pleased to see that you all enjoy following alone with me. 

Alabama, Mississppi, and Hawaii: Playing to a draw

It is going to be a very interesting primary day. For the sake of argument, we will give Hawaii to Mitt Romney. He has won every Blue state that Barack Obama won in 2008, so despite Rick Santorum sending his daughter to campaign there this week, I am assuming that trend holds.

For Alabama and Mississippi it gets more uncertain. Mitt Romney is leading in the polls for both states. The leads, however, are within each poll's margin of error. This is relevant because of the earlier Tennessee primary which showed a similar small lead for Mitt Romney in the last poll before the voting began but broke significantly for Rick Santorum. The demographics of the voters in Tennessee are similar to those in today’s races in Alabama and Mississippi, so the polls may again be deceiving.

The issues are these:

As previously written about, Mitt Romney has lost every state that went for John McCain/Sarah Palin except Arizona and Alaska, the home states of the 2008 nominees. I do not count Virginia as only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot so it is not a relevant argument. Both Alabama and Mississippi went for John McCain/Sarah Palin in 2008, so it would be a huge upset to the pattern to date if Mitt Romney carried either of them. Also, Mitt Romney has only carried states with significant voting blocks of $100K plus income voters, which does not apply to Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney has also only carried states where the electorate had at least 50% with college degrees. Both Alabama and Mississippi fall short of that mark, topping out in the high 48% range.

A statistic that cannot be ignored: Mitt Romney has not carried any states where the electorate has a significant percentage that identify as born-again or evangelical Christians. Both Alabama and Mississippi are heavy with those voters.  Finally, however, we come to the issue of money. Mitt Romney has not lost any state where he has significantly outspent his rivals. In both Alabama and Mississippi, Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich 3 to 1 and Rick Santorum 4 to 1.

So we are left with a pair of southern, religious, lower-income Red states that should go to Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum. But we have Mitt Romney outspending his opponents by the millions, and leading in the polls. Each time in this campaign Mitt Romney has had a chance to score a knockout, he has been upset. And each time one of his opponents has needed a big day to turn the tide, Mitt Romney has bounced back to re-establish control. So something has to give tonight. Does Mitt Romney finally find a way to leverage the money and party support and win a critical Red state? Does Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich overcome the money Mitt Romney has spent by continuing to connect with the base? Does tonight solve anything?

My prediction is a stalemate. As I started with, Mitt Romney will win Hawaii. I think Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will split Alabama and Mississippi, although it is not entirely out of the question for one of them to win both states, or for Mitt Romney to steal one by a tiny margin. It is also a strong likelihood that someone will WIN one or both without really accomplishing anything.

If the states go 33% to the winner, 31% to the runner-up, and 30% to the person in 3^rd, someone will certainly get bragging rights (and someone else might get knocked from the race) but no one will reap a significant plurality of delegates. This helps Mitt Romney. He is a team leading by several touchdowns playing prevent defense. Yes, the other team might score, and they might make the final score look closer than it really was all game, but if he makes it as difficult a road as possible, the clock will run out before any significant comeback can be mounted.

As has happened before, Mitt Romney likely wins just one of the three states today, but may just come away with more delegates on the day than Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. He will take that sort of day all the way to the convention.

Super Tuesday Postmortem

It is time for the Super Tuesday postmortem.  Despite winning three states, which was two more than I predicted, Super Tuesday was an even worse day for Rick Santorum than even I had envisioned. Mitt Romney took more delegates than expected, Rick Santorum noticeably less.

This has left the electoral math in a precarious predicament for Rick Santorum. He needs to win 61% of the remaining delegates to overtake Mitt Romney. Assuming Mitt Romney holds on to his commanding leads in NY and NJ, or even if they fall all the way to even splits, Rick Santorum would be forced to win 68% of the remaining delegates. 

This is not beyond the realm of mathematical possibility, but it absolutely cannot happen if Newt Gingrich remains in the race. Kansas votes this weekend. Mitt Romney has struggled in the Midwest and Newt Gingrich is forgoing Kansas to focus on Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. So if Rick Santorum can win Kansas, it will be a boost despite not significantly altering the delegate race.

Alabama and Mississippi are ‘must wins’ for Newt Gingrich or there will be calls to drop out on Wednesday morning. I do not see any way Mitt Romney wins either state, so the need is for Rick Santorum to upset Newt Gingrich in one or both of those state, thereby narrowing the delegate race very slightly AND forcing Newt Gingrich from the race.

Many of the delegates Gingrich and the other candidates have accumulated are of the ‘uncommitted’ variety. This means that if your candidate is out, you are free to support anyone else at the convention. Most simply choose to support the eventual nominee, so it is not normally a factor, but if Newt Gingrich bows out, it throws another 100 or so delegates back into the mix. Whether they would eventually support Rick Santorum or not, he can argue that these ‘uncommitted’ delegates help his math and make it a greater possibility Mitt Romney can be overtaken.

If however, Newt Gingrich wins Alabama and Mississippi, he will be in it for the long haul and will be able to make a much stronger argument that it is Rick Santorum who should bow out. It will not matter how the argument goes. If there are still three candidates (yes, I do not even count Ron Paul as a candidate at this point) come Wednesday morning, the nomination belongs to Mitt Romney or to no one. There is no other way the math works out. So while the next 5 days will not likely guarantee and end to the primary campaign, it very well may guarantee a winner.

There is more to the story however. So far, the candidates have won the following states:

Gingrich: South Carolina, Georgia

Santorum: Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Romney: New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont, and Virginia

No one, in any of the recent polls, picks Romney to win anything this week: Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi

Why are the results to date an issue for Mitt Romney? The answer is simple.  Mitt Romney is winning Democratic states. Other than Arizona and Alaska (which went for John McCain/Sarah Palin and were the home states of the two candidates) every state Mitt Romney has won so far was a state that went for Barack Obama in 2008 and likely will again in 2012. Yes, every one.  Both of Newt Gingrich’s wins were in Red states. Four of Rick Santorum’s seven wins were in Red states. And all three primaries this week ahead is are in Red states and will almost certainly go for Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.

Can Mitt Romney actually beat Barack Obama in any of the Blue states he has won so far? Probably not, except maybe if he wins Massachusetts. A Romney advisor opined this week that the above-mentioned NY/NJ primaries would act as a significant firewall to a Rick Santorum comeback as Mitt Romney will likely win those states by large margins. Again, these are states that are already in the win column for Barack Obama in November.

So it appears Mitt Romney is capable of beating true conservatives in Blue states, but not in Red states. I challenge someone from the Mitt Romney campaign to tell me one state that John McCain lost that Mitt Romney will flip to the Republican side of the ledger? He needs about five to actually win, as Barack Obama routed John McCain, but I would settle for one.

Even worse for Mitt Romney are the exit poll results from Ohio and Michigan, two states which went Democratic in 2008 and are hardly conservative bastions. Mitt Romney won Michigan on the strength of Wayne County (Detroit) and the suburbs and won Ohio on the strength of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), both Democratic strongholds in November. Worse, the demographics in both states are shocking.

Incomes under $50K per year: Santorum

Incomes between $50K and $100K per year: Santorum

Incomes between $100K and $150Kper year: Santorum

Incomes between $150K and $200K per year: Santorum

Incomes over $200K per year: Romney

So basically Mitt Romney won Republicans very likely to vote Democrat in the fall, and wealthy people. Yes, the statistics are accurate. The only income demographic Mitt Romney won in Michigan OR Ohio was people earning over $200K per year. Take those out; Rick Santorum wins both states handily. Why is this relevant?  It is relevant because in 2008, voters with incomes above $200K per year voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, not John McCain!

So this dramatically changes Mitt Romney’s argument about electability. His contention is that only he, and not Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, can beat Barack Obama in November. What has he done to prove that? He has won Blue states that will undoubtedly vote for Barack Obama in November. He has won on the strength of voters with $200K plus incomes, who will undoubtedly vote for Barack Obama in November. And he has lost every southern state and Red state which are vital to a Republican winning a presidential race (with the previously mentioned exceptions of Arizona and Alaska).

So on what does he base his claim of electability? At this point, based on the primaries so far, both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have proven an ability to win Republicans. They have both proven an ability to win in the South. Rick Santorum has proven his appeal with blue-collar and lower income voters. Mitt Romney has proven he would be a fine Democratic nominee.  This is the argument Rick Santorum needs to make if he can eventually force Newt Gingrich out: Mitt Romney is the Barack Obama of the Right, but I am the conservative Republican alternative. Now if only we get to have that debate before it is too late.

Super Tuesday

Welcome to Super Tuesday! Is this the end? Is this a new beginning? Is this a new beginning to the end? We will find out in due time. I will, obviously, offer my predictions on today’s races. But before I get down to the predictions, let’s discuss some questions about the campaign, and wonder whether today will resolve any of them? Unfortunately, the discussion will contain some spoilers on the predictions, but that is inevitable.

First, why is Newt Gingrich still in the race and what makes him think Super Tuesday will change anything? Newt started out his campaign so poorly it was nearly the end of his campaign. If not for his billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, Newt Gingrich would have been out after finishing last in Iowa and New Hampshire. He rebounded to upset Mitt Romney in South Carolina, and followed that up with second place finishes in Florida and Nevada. 

Since then, however, he has placed as follows:

Missouri- Not on ballot

Minnesota- Last

Colorado- 3^rd (Beat only Ron Paul)

Maine-Last

Arizona-Last

Michigan-Last

Washington-Last

On Super Tuesday, he is not on the ballot in Virginia, but is expected to win his home state of Georgia.

In the remaining eight Super Tuesday states, he is expected to finish according to the pattern he has shown the previous seven states, either dead last, or 3^rd having topped only Ron Paul. Can he pull a shocker or two somewhere? Probably not. Would it matter if he did? Probably not. So what the heck is he still doing in the race?

Ron Paul has his own reasons for staying in, which we will discuss when we get to him, but there is no valid reason whatsoever for Newt Gingrich to still stay in this race. Worse, it can be reasonably argued that with Newt Gingrich out, Rick Santorum would have won Michigan. I think it is fair to assume that of those who voted for Newt Gingrich, more would have voted for Rick Santorum instead of Mitt Romney. With the split in Michigan being only 3%, that division of the Newt Gingrich vote would have pushed Rick Santorum to victory.

The very same thing could happen today in Ohio. The race is neck and neck (and although this may be a spoiler to the predictions I will make at the end) but Mitt Romney will win Ohio today. He will win very narrowly. And the Newt Gingrich vote will again be enough to tip Ohio to Rick Santorum.

Think of how different this race would be if Rick Santorum had won Michigan? Losing Ohio will likely not be the end for Rick Santorum today, but winning it after winning Michigan would have Mitt Romney on the ropes instead of locked in as the likely nominee. The same will likely happen today in Tennessee according to the recent polls: a close Mitt Romney victory over Rick Santorum with the votes that went for Newt Gingrich being enough to make up the difference.

So again the question, what possible reason does Newt Gingrich have for remaining in this race? And when he wakes tomorrow having won ONLY his home state of Georgia today (which was all he ever had a shot to win anyway) will he drop out? If so, why did he not drop out three weeks ago? Newt Gingrich will end this string of eighteen early primaries with one victory (his home state of Georgia), two states where he was not on the ballot (Missouri and Virginia) and fifteen finishes in either last or next to last. Yet he will have had more impact than anyone who was a part of the process as he will have turned three states Rick Santorum desperately needed to win into Mitt Romney victories. Who knows, maybe Mitt Romney promised him a cabinet position or something? He should at least buy him something nice when this is all over.

Next question, obviously, is why is Ron Paul still in the race? He at least has been doing better than Newt Gingrich. He has not won any states (as Gingrich did with South Carolina and will in Georgia today) but he has been second in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Washington. Today will not be a turnaround for Ron Paul, as he will join Gingrich in the 3^rd/or last role in every state except Virginia, where only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are on the ballot.

One might think that Virginia would at least be a shot for Ron Paul to garner some delegates, as it is a proportional state and only the two candidates are on the ballot. Wrong. The way the delegates are apportioned in Virginia changes if one candidate exceeds 50%, in other words wins a landslide. With only two candidates on the ballot, the winner will almost certainly exceed 50% (unless it is nearly tied and some write-ins steal away enough votes). So despite finishing second, Ron Paul may get nothing from Virginia.

So why is he still here? Ron Paul is a fringe player who is sticking around just to amass enough delegates so he at least gets a speaking slot at the convention where he can have a forum for his opinions. He has managed to nibble away a few delegates here and there, and assuming he stays in long after this process is decided, he will likely amass more. After all, once the nomination is secured, the nominee stops campaigning in the primaries. With his grassroots teams, and his low budget campaign style, he can continue to campaign and pick up 10-15% of the vote in each state. Almost all the states from here out are proportional.  

Ron Paul will get his chance to speak at the convention. It will be irrelevant, as the Republicans will not let Ron Paul speak in prime time during the convention. So although he will get his say, and the media will comment on it, he will not achieve anything of significance. But for Ron Paul, being heard and having the chance to explain why you are right is all that has ever mattered. I admire his drive, and his principles. He is not a realist, and he never had a serious chance to even be considered for President, but he will stay in and for that he will have his say.

As for Rick Santorum, how different things might have been if he had gotten credit for winning Iowa when it happened instead of weeks later. How different things might have been if Ron Paul had not sabotaged him in the debate right before Michigan and if Newt Gingrich had dropped out and let Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum go head to head? How different things might have been if Rick Santorum had money at the start, and if he could have been on the ballot in Virginia? Or if he had the money to counter Mitt Romney’s ad blitzes in the early states to keep his momentum going? But alas, none of that happened.

I would love to see Rick Santorum take Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, with strong finishes elsewhere. But I think the handwriting is on the wall.

I will end with my predictions for tonight.  Newt Gingrich wins Georgia. Rick Santorum wins Oklahoma. Mitt Romney wins everything else. Mitt Romney wins Ohio, which the polls currently say favors Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney also wins Tennessee, where the polls also favor Rick Santorum, but Rick Santorum does have a chance here.  Super Tuesday will be a huge night for Mitt Romney. Rick Santorum finishes second everywhere (except Virginia where he is not on the ballot).  When it is done, Newt Gingrich drops out, maybe Rick Santorum lurks a while but he will effectively be dead man walking if he cannot pull some big upsets down the road. Or he may just drop out also. I hope I am wrong and that the race goes on.